Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 1.545026 1.615568 1.689070 1.771647 1.862170 1.958776 2.070186
2026-01-25 1.436689 1.527475 1.625161 1.738838 1.868479 2.012952 2.187919
2026-02-01 1.370429 1.475313 1.590961 1.729300 1.892181 2.080393 2.318260
2026-02-08 1.315651 1.430383 1.559384 1.717213 1.908084 2.135651 2.434454
2026-02-15 1.268417 1.390265 1.529508 1.703144 1.918045 2.181472 2.539666
2026-02-22 1.237783 1.367099 1.517169 1.707780 1.949124 2.253362 2.682375
2026-03-01 1.191065 1.322333 1.476279 1.674315 1.929110 2.256823 2.731509
2026-03-08 1.154404 1.287894 1.446007 1.651893 1.920931 2.273883 2.799153
2026-03-15 1.125175 1.261145 1.423739 1.637975 1.922229 2.302600 2.884582
2026-03-22 1.115266 1.257401 1.429437 1.659572 1.971049 2.398952 3.078900
2026-03-29 1.109757 1.258614 1.441009 1.688827 2.031275 2.515138 3.316853
2026-04-05 1.089294 1.240262 1.426758 1.682821 2.041725 2.558883 3.441937
2026-04-12 1.072430 1.226422 1.418409 1.685163 2.065198 2.625500 3.617438
2026-04-19 1.042864 1.195502 1.386772 1.654300 2.038966 2.613603 3.652754
2026-04-26 1.023814 1.177493 1.371393 1.645059 2.043554 2.649816 3.779696
2026-05-03 1.005047 1.159289 1.355104 1.633742 2.044196 2.679331 3.897459
2026-05-10 0.986654 1.141060 1.338176 1.620754 2.041436 2.702718 4.005993
2026-05-17 0.975845 1.132359 1.333599 1.624875 2.064553 2.770292 4.213831
2026-05-24 0.952562 1.106749 1.305538 1.594325 2.032577 2.741780 4.214031
2026-05-31 0.933981 1.086964 1.284900 1.573836 2.015406 2.737747 4.267453
2026-06-07 0.919029 1.071659 1.269970 1.561109 2.009799 2.753428 4.367265
2026-06-14 0.916398 1.072589 1.277160 1.580817 2.056507 2.865497 4.711111
2026-06-21 0.916269 1.076783 1.288859 1.607486 2.115801 3.006083 5.161809